Generic Conclusions and Predictions

 The world was supposed to have ended, in 2012 according to one.

That doesn't stop people from making wild predictions, about anything and everything. Most predictions fall flat, including those about the weather. Because there are so many variables accounting for an effect, and it's impossible to measure many of those. 

Plus, unforeseen events like Corona, or lesser catastrophes happen more often than we acknowledge.

Right now, there's a spate of armchair forecasts about what AI will do to the world at large. Of course, other doomsday forecasters are not quiet either. 

My response to all these know-alls is standard- How Do You know? Period.

Cause and Effect

 Usually, an effect is the result of many causes, acting independently. But we simplify matters by attributing a single cause to an effect. The world is generally multivariate, or has multiple forces acting simultaneously.

Sometimes, two or more things have to happen simultaneously to produce an effect that we notice. As an example from films, Hindi films, the fact that Rajesh Khanna acted out songs sung by Kishore Kumar in a film called Aradhana (composer SD Burman) benefited both immensely, and each became a superstar in his domain. Both had some success individually, more so Kishore Kumar when he sang for Dev Anand earlier in the sixties, but the success multiplied manifold when he teamed up with Rajesh Khanna in a string of superhit songs. Dev Anand had equal success with songs sung by Mohammad Rafi and Kishore Kumar over his lifetime in films. Sometimes, like in Guide, both sang for him.

Rishi Kapoor initially had Shailendra Singh singing for him in his debut and a few subsequent films, but the songs he performed in films where Kishore Kumar sang for him (Khel Khel Mein, Hum Kisise Kam Nahi, Karz, were some) took him to dizzying heights of popularity. The music in this case was by RD Burman for the first two and Laxmikant Pyarelal for the third-they also played a role.

Just a couple of examples to show that many variables -acting together (interaction effect) or independently-may result in a particular effect.

Presentation Matters

 I have spent many hours (years?) of my life listening to presentations made using a Powerpoint set. But that's not what I mean by presentation. I am broadly talking about communication. For instance, it could be just a way of telling a story. My grandfather told us one very effectively, and I still remember it vividly-about a rabbit scaring away a lion by pretending to be a bigger animal!

It could be the intonation, or images used-orally or on a screen, or board, or gestures, while communicating. In food shows, it's the plating that makes the food looks cool, because you can't taste it as a viewer, so you only have an image to help you imagine.

Packaging is a form of presentation. How you package a product can make a difference between someone buying it or not! Which is why smart marketers play around with packaging so much! How you display products in a retail store can also achieve similar results- good or bad.

In short, think about presentation. Whether it's yourself at an interview, or a on a date, or a presentation you make to a boss or a client!