The Business of Forecasting

What would happen if a financial analyst forecast a big loss in his annual forecast for a company? He might get the boot. Forecasters are typically an optimistic bunch, therefore. Imagine if a King's courtier told him that he thought the neighbouring army is going to defeat his master soon? He would have been fed to the lions, or crocodiles, whichever were available nearby.

But imagine for a moment that the world had turned on its head. That forecasters were suddenly gloomy about everything in sight. The oil prices, the food prices, the environment, the stock markets, the Greek civilisation, the Roman Church, the Irish whisky, the American presidency, and the African wildlife, according to them, are going the wrong way. With no redemption in sight.

Is that a futuristic scenario of forecaster behaviour? I am not so sure. Is the world coming to an end even before the forecast doomsday of 2012? From the forecasters' perspective, maybe.