Thoughts On Exit Polls and Results

Exit polls, one would expect, are a little bit easier than opinion polls. The only question you ask is "Whom did you vote for?" and you expect one answer, the name of a party. You then add up the numbers. So what can go wrong?

Plenty, it seems, because the last few times, the margin of error has been fairly big. For one, it all depends on the sampling method, and representativeness of the sample. With experts doing the sampling, usually they do try and do it right.

Even if you get the percentage of votes right, sometimes it is tricky to predict who will win the seat. Indian contests usually involve at least three to four contenders (serious ones). The votes get divided, and the winner (almost) never gets 50% of the vote. Therefore, if one party is at 31% and another at 29%, it's hard to predict (given unavoidable errors) who will actually win the seat. This can happen over many seats that are closely fought.

But if there is a massive swing against a ruling party or FOR a new party, it is probably easier to catch that in the air, apart from the poll data. Like many expect this time around.

Interesting to see what happens on the 16th. Swing, wave, et.al.- yes, or no?

View from a Window

I took a train journey after quite a while. And I had a window seat, that we used to covet when kids. Peeping out of your train window seat was one of the greatest pleasures of kid life, perhaps. The transitioning to adult life makes you forget sometimes, the small pleasures and aim for big ones. Like buying a large-screen TV.

Anyway, getting back to the present journey. What I like about train journeys is the fact that you can stretch a leg- or two. Without the passengers in front or back getting annoyed with you as in a plane, I mean. Because they are all free to do the same, without intruding into your space. There's also a relaxed air about how long you want to argue about change with your chaiwala. I saw a 4-5 minute back and forth happening about the price of chai AND the non-existence of small change. What entertainment. And both parties were quite cool about it too.

The train also was in a relaxed frame of mind, putting all thoughts of competitiveness out of your mind for the duration of the journey. Mostly, mobile phones did not ring-they CAN be an irritant if they work well. The loos were pretty clean, another positive. The platforms were not, but then that is to be expected when you take the stats of number of users/trains on them into account. Sort of like the garbage problems plaguing nations around the globe.

Best of all, the view from the window was refreshing.