Leadership in a Crisis

 There are many different things that a crisis will test. For instance, the speed with which you can act to respond. Obviously, that power rests with the leader/s in an organisation or nation/state.

Second, getting advice from the right people. If the leader has no expertise in a given matter (and he/she can't possibly be an expert in everything, by definition), he must know who the expert is, and get them on board on his side.

Some anticipation of what different options will result in. A cause and effect prediction-not just one, but for at least 3-4 options. Typically what we do in a case analysis pioneered by Harvard University, and now copied worldwide. Except that it's more complicated in a crisis. Multiple actions may be needed on many fronts.

Another option is using simulation, where multiple scenarios instead of only a few, can be used for scenario-building, with consequences that can be debated. Any scenario can be tackled if you know it's probability. It keeps you much better prepared.

Firmness or decisiveness once the discussions are over and done with, willingness to try one option out, while keeping your mind open if anything unexpected happens, are some other desirable qualities.

Yes, this second wave of COVID is what inspired this post. No blame game, but an academic point of view.

Gee, It's the Greeks

A crisis by any other name, would it sound the same?

For example, a Geek crisis could also include default on payments, because the geek was neck deep in his geeky activities. By the way, is a nerd a geek, or the other way round? Not quite sure.

But coming back to crises, they are more interesting when the Greeks are involved-geeky or not. In fact, most things get more interesting when there are Greeks or Romans (as Asterix would have said, these Romans are crazy) in them. Caesar's salad and Greek salad compete for the palate. You know what? The Greeks are supposed to have given us the Modern Democracy. So we have someone to blame. When we were happily lurching from one monarch to the other, where was the need to upset the apple-cart?

Anyway, what's done is done. We will now lurch from one party to another in a democratic whirlwind. And default (whose fault is it anyway?) on payments sometimes, to add zest to the proceedings- in between the elections, I mean.

Tragedy of Greek Proportions

Greece's crisis is of huge proportions, but it's not as if anything like it hasn't happened before. India in 1991, several South American countries such as Venezuela in the late 80s and nineties, and Russia in its post-liberalisation days, have all had such crises.

What is different here is that the government of the day is still playing a populist tune, with no ideas on how to get itself out of the economic crisis. It may be weaker on its own, and stronger with the Eurozone, if it allows a compromise solution to be worked out. It may help itself, and a few other countries in the process too.

Hope good sense prevails.

It's All Greek to Me- A Contrarian View of the Crisis

The crisis gripping Greece- it sounds like a lot of Greek (or Latin, if you prefer that). I mean, look at a lot of other countries where people don't have anything to eat. Sub-saharan Africa (where is that?), or rural Australia (yes, it exists), or a lot of places around the world. But the easier comparison would be with the U.S. What's a piffling few billion Euros of deficit in the budget (which Greece has)? The U.S. has been running a trillion dollar budget deficit for a few years now. Does it look concerned? No, the party is on. Just in case you were not aware, the U.S. also runs a huge trade deficit (that is exports minus imports) of 558 billion dollars or so, at last count. Has that fazed them? No. Then, why this Kolaveri (pardon me, angst) ji?

The solution? Increase spending. Consumer spending, government spending, bailouts, any spending. Party hard. If you drink local brew, upgrade to Single Malts or Hennessey VSOP. If you wear local brands, start looking at Prada. Dump your old bags and go for Gucci. Suits? Armani se apne armaan poore karo (Hindi for 'fulfil your wishes with Armani'- could be a good tag line for them). Give a lot of gifts for Christmas, Diwali, or for no reason. Buy some yachts. The idea is to help your country gain the no.1 spot in spending. Other things like the economy will take care of themselves, automatically. If it works for the U.S. it will work for us. Don't fret, my friends in Greece. Or Portugal. Go for it!