Forecasting

The business of forecasting is an interesting one. Today the head of the Indian Met Dept. said that his dept.'s forecast of the monsoon rains might be off the mark. That is the understatement of the year. Drought seems to be staring half of India in its face.

Actually, I like the word soothsayer rather than forecaster. At least it accurately reflects what the guy can really accomplish- which is, to soothe. For people whose nerves are frayed with worldly worries, a soothing word or two would go a long way. For a childless couple, it may be nice to hear that they will have a bundle of joy in their life soon. And so on, if you get the drift. End of the world prophecies are not really needed, because it hardly matters if we know about it or not.

I had read a good joke about an astrologer who would predict whether an impending child would be a girl or boy (in olden times). He would record in a diary the opposite of what he told the would-be parents. Then, if a parent came to him with a complaint, he'd pull out his diary and show it to them. He knew that if he got it right, no one would come back!